What Can We Learn From This Chart?

What Can We Learn From This Chart?

What Can We Learn From Chart?

In a discussion on FaceBook regarding markup my friend and collegue Dan Kolbert of Kolbert Builders in Portland ME wrote:

“…the most predictable aspect of your volume is your own crew in the field, and your markup should be connected to that, rather than something much more variable, like your overall volume, the expense of materials, etc. Gerstel [David Gerstel Nail Your Numbers: A Path to Skilled Construction Estimating and Bidding] argues for the number of jobs your leads can run, figuring out how much OH/P needs to be recouped per week per lead, and divvying things up. Others (myself included) look at the overall estimated billable hours your crew will get in for the year, and making sure your jobs recoup OH/P based on those numbers.”

What he is talking about is illustrated in this chart. Back in January of 2009 I was trying to teach myself Apple’s Numbers program to see how it compared to Excel (to make a long story short it doesn’t compare, stick to Excel). So I had just gotten the 2008 financials from one of the contractors I was working with as a coach and consultant back then so I decided to see how charting in Numbers worked plotting out his Sales data for the year.

I noticed the chart I was working on perfectly illustrated what I have been writing about in regard to the problems in using a Volume Based Markup approach to pricing work. In a Volume Based approach the Total COGS can bear little relationship to the month to month real cash flow requirements of a company. In months where Material and SubContracting sales are lighter a company can be cash strapped to even cover their Overhead requirements. So I thought I’d publish the chart and see if everyone else would see what I see.

Another collegeue of ours Bob Kovacs at the time Vice President of Preconstruction- Skanska USA Building wrote:

“Hmmmm…I think we can gather that labor costs and overhead costs stay rather consistent from month to month, whereas the other costs vary greatly from month to month. Seems like a good reason to tie (allocate) overhead costs to labor costs, rather than to total volume.”

This was a small Connecticut based contractor and as I recall it was just 3 guys working together. They did general carpentry, mostly exterior, but a lot of custom decks in the summertime and during the colder winter months they worked inside picking up a lot of interior painting jobs to fill the gaps in their schedule so that is why the material costs went up in the summer months and down in the winter.

Back in 2004-05 I collected and compiled some data on different project types to see what the ratio of Materials to Labor Hrs was for different kinds of projects or more specifically how many dollars of materials were being installed per Labor Hr. concrete and masonry work was the lowest and kitchens were the highest but the message is/was not all work is the same in the ratio of time the project takes to the material cost involved.

So contractors I have talked to argue their market, their work product doesn’t vary seasonally but that ignores the fact that even if you do the exact same kind of project all years long this same kind of variation takes place within a certain type of project. Not all task have the same ratio of materials (or subs) to you own labor’s time.

Recently yet another  colleague on FaceBook reminded me of a lesson learned in a book I read years ago (The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Sam Savage) which teaches us: “…plans based on assumptions about average conditions usually go wrong”…&… “A bottom line based on average assumptions should be the average bottom line, right? It may miss fluctuations from month to month,” and project to project and task to task.

So given all that why would we possibly want to figure our project thinking on the assumption that that ratio stays constant? You dollar volume is always changing depending upon the task or type of projects you are doing. Why not base your Overhead recovery on the number of Labor Hours your company can generate since that remains more constant and predictable?

The “What Can We Learn From Chart?” Worksheets:

In sheet 2 (there is a cover sheet) I enter the data for the contractor I described above and breakout the Gross Profit Totals both as you see it by a Volume Base Markup and a Capacity Based Markup.

Sheet 3 is just a more detailed look at the data according to using a Capacity Based Markup.

Sheet 4 is just a more detailed look at the data according to using the Volume Based Markup method.

In Sheet 5 the two methodolgies are compared.

It’s worth noting that is February the cash receipts for the Volume Based Markup method are so low that Net Profit is negative. The company is losing money.

The arguement is made by the promoters and users of the Volume Based Markup method that over the course of the year that the data “averages out” over the course of the year.

The reality is contractors using the Volume Based Markup method wont get the Low Relative Cost of Labor to High Cost of Materials, and SubContracting jobs because they’ll be pricing themselves out of the market. The reality is the jobs they will get will fall into the standard mid range mix model  and the High Relative Cost of Labor to Low Cost of Materials, and SubContracting jobs like that they will do at a minimal profit or at a loss. See Comparing Markup Methodologies In Real Some World Pricing Scenarios for a deatiled hypothetical case study of the problem.


The “What Can We Learn From Chart?” Workbook

We have an Excel Workbook with all the data that was used to generate the chart about and a log more. If you like to check it out and try out different scenarios yourself just fill out the form below and download you copy of the workbook.

The Tranquilizing Drug Of Gradualism

In his book Selling the Invisible: A Field Guide to Modern Marketing (p.134) Harry Beckwith wrote:

Beware the deadly middle. If you price in the middle, what you are saying is “We’re not the best, and neither is our price, but both our service and price are pretty good.” Not a very compelling message.

Echoing that same sentiment business consultant Steve Dennis writes about “The Tranquilizing Drug Of Gradualism”

The tranquilizing drug of gradualism

In his “I have a dream” speech, Martin Luther King, Jr. challenged a slow and steady pathway to civil rights reform. Those in favor of an incremental approach feared that making waves–that being too confrontational–would backfire. It was seen as too risky a strategy.

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From the folks at WooCommerce….

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It’s probably one of the most common questions you’ve been asked in your professional life: “How much would a new WooCommerce store cost us?”. Any of its variants count as well: “how much will you guys charge us to build that extension?”. If you’ve worked on a WooCommerce project, you get the gist.

Ignoring these 6 SEO strategies could come back to haunt you | SearchEngineLand.com

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Halloween is just around the corner. Soon you’ll be seeing little ghosts, goblins, witches and Donald Trump wannabes wandering your street in search of treats. SEO is a lot like these trick-or-treaters: If you’re brave enough to go into the scary dark night and knock on strangers’ doors, you could be rewarded with goodies!

Marketing Chart: The most affluent consumers also the most likely to engage with marketing | MarketingSherpa

The big important takeaway from the article:

You might assume that the most affluent customers are harder to reach and the least likely to engage with marketing. After all, the time they spend engaging with marketing is more valuable based on their income level. And, as the saying goes — time is money.

However, when we broke down the data based on income level, we made a surprising discovery — the most affluent customers were the most likely to engage….

Marketing Chart: The most affluent consumers also the most likely to engage with marketing

Affluent customers’ time is more valuable (when measured monetarily) than less affluent customers. So, you might assume they are less likely to spend that valuable time engaging with your marketing. However, we discovered the exact opposite to be true.

Are you (and your employees too) saving enough?

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There are a ton of startling chunks of valuable information in this article from the Motley Fool website:

10 Retirement Stats Every Baby Boomer Should Know — The Motley Fool

Worried about retirement? You’re not alone. A large number of workers nearing the end of their careers are learning the hard way that retirement is expensive and that most older Americans simply aren’t prepared. If you’re thinking of retiring in the not-so-distant future, here are a few facts you should be aware of.